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---- Cree Indian Prophecy ---

The most striking trend is one of population growth, largely in Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (The United Nations suggest equilibrium of 9.3 million by 2050). ^{1 & 2} Whereas Western Europe, North America, Japan and Australia have relatively stable populations, with birth and deaths in equilibrium, the culture of large families and increasing life expectancy places an increasing population burden on the 'developing' world. This problem is accentuated by the drift towards urbanisation ³ and it's associate demands on even the most basic resources such as water and air.

For this essay we will explore four resource concerns outlined by Rees ⁴. For each of these concerns we will illustrate an example where these may be applied

1. Exhaustion (of minerals) - Oil in Nigeria
2. Pollution (of resources. i.e. land, water and air sinks.) - Water in Bangladesh
3. Depletion (of renewable resources) - Forest in Brazil
4. Loss (of amenity) - Arable land in Ethiopia

 

Developing countries have a history of exploitation of their mineral resources. When we regard the history of commodities trading we see that the major mineral commodities are all found, extracted and exported from those countries ⁵, often without any proportionate or lasting benefit to those countries.

Nigeria is no exception. In 38 years an estimated $30 billion of oil has been extracted from the Niger Delta alone, yet the indigenous people have suffered a legacy of marginalisation, pollution, exploitation and lack of the most basic facilities ⁵. The native Ogoni have a recent history of oppression culminating 1800 deaths, 80,000 homeless and the execution of their spokesman, Ken Sara Wiwo in 1985 ⁶.

Nigeria's military rulers have maintained or even increased dependence on their oil sector which now accounts for over 90% of Nigeria's export earnings ⁷. The agricultural sector, is not able to cater for rapid population growth, consequently the country, once an exporter of food, is now a net importer of food. In this first example we have an increasing, urbanising population, an 'eggs in one basket economy' heavily dependent on a single, finite, natural resource. Such an arrangement is intrinsically fragile, nevertheless if we had evidence that it was working we might extrapolate future success.

In spite of over 50 years of huge resource exploitation Nigeria's population has an average life expectancy of 51 years and nearly half the population are illiterate ⁸. In terms of general social welfare this cannot be termed a success. No company in the world has greater assets outside it's home country than Royal Dutch Shell ⁹, who, to some degree, are the architects behind the pattern of natural resource use in Nigeria. It appears that the oil of the Niger Delta has been managed extremely well in terms of maintaining Royal Dutch Shell's finances. There is no evidence to prove, nor reason to believe that management of natural resources in Nigeria will continue to be anything other than exploitative ¹⁰.

The discovery and exploitation of mineral natural resources generally follows a distinct pattern, culminating in a peak of production (Hubbert's Peak) ¹¹. Although it is warned that this stage of global oil exploitation is upon us, timing is largely immaterial; it is the fact of non-infinite resources which is pertinent. If a country produces, for example, oil, there will come a time when it's reserves diminish. A 'developing' country is characterised by international debt, poverty, and population growth. According to the most optimistic estimates, we will not be able to fuel the internal combustion engine by 2050. Nigeria's oil industry will either run out of raw material, or a growing world shortage of oil will cause a shift away from it's use as a fuel. Either way the oil industry will cease to exist.

Demographic trends indicate that a growing, 'developing' world will require more oil, yet geologists estimate even at current (below capacity) production levels, Nigeria's oil will only last for another 28 years. (Nigerian oil reserves are 25 billion barrels. Due to OPEC quota cutbacks and mounting community problems in oil producing areas, daily production has fallen to about two million barrels, of which 40% is exported to the United States ¹².) In that time Nigeria's population may grow by 100 million, therefore it may be estimated that an already impoverished populace, will lose it's staple export resource, and plunge Nigeria further into the Malthusian quandary of Famine, Disease or War.

If Bangladesh has one natural resource, it is water. The fourth most populous country in the world in an area not much larger than Great Britain that is generally low lying, straddles the Ganges and Bramahuptra rivers. The predicament of its future (water) resource management is fairly straightforward.

This has led to problems in that the aquifers already contained natural contaminants, especially arsenic, and that now between 20 and 75 million Bangladeshis are threatened by contaminated water. Within a few years as many as one in ten deaths in Southern Bangladesh may be from Arsenic Related Cancers ¹³.

An anthropomorphic surface pollution, and a natural underground contamination offer the Simpsonian paradox of "Your damned if you do and your damned if you don't" ¹⁴. Bangladesh's population stands at 131 million, and is estimated to grow to 191 million by 2030 ¹⁵. Typically of 'third world' development this increase will be largely in cities, the inhabitants of which are very much more difficult to supply with water.

Brazil is untypical of 'developing' countries, because of it's size, and more importantly the amount and variety of it's unique, rare and vast renewable natural resources. The rain forest in Brazil covers an area bigger than Europe, and contains 50 percent of the worlds species ¹⁶.

We also see that unlike our other examples Brazil is approaching 'developed' standards of health (Life expectancy average 63 years) and education (83% Literacy) ⁸.

Alan Grainger speaks of deforestation not being a major problem in Brazil. Brazil, has around 300 million ha of moist rain forest, and the rate of extraction from Amazonia is around 2.1 million ha per annum. It is pointed out that public concern and scarcity affects deforestation, with England and the USA being cited as examples where deforestation has now halted ¹⁷.

While England and the USA are examples where deforestation has stopped and even reversed, there are distinct reasons that have allowed this to happen. Management of fast growing and homogeneously planed softwoods, and replacement by import have mitigated the negative effects of indigenous deforestation. Although Brazil is big, were demand to exceed the 'developing' world's capacity to supply, it would still create an unsustainable and eventually exhaustive regime. Significantly, deforestation in the 'west' has lead to local and global extinctions of species, illustrated by habitat induced change, especially through deforestation, has being responsible for extinctions of 9 large mammals in Scotland alone ¹⁸. Extinctions world wide are occurring at a greater rate than ever before, and considering that an area the total size of Scotland is deforested in Amazonia every four years, it might be speculated that were this to be indiscriminate destruction certain threats are posed for biodiversity.

The whole crux of this depletion is that it benefits some usually at the expense of others. Brazil is home to indigenous peoples who do not speak Portuguese and had never heard of Pele. Their sustainable livelihoods have complemented their environment, but are incompatible, in their historical form, with 'development'. When we look at the division of Brazil's wealth we see a remarkable divide between the haves (10% of the population have 50% of the wealth, and the have nots (10% of the population share 1% of the wealth) ⁸. It might be speculated that Brazil is in fact a 'United States of Latin America. Unfortunately some of those 'states' are powerless, 'expendable' and do not confirm to ideals of 'development'.

Observation would indicate "Where levels of inequality are high, development will tend to exacerbate deforestation rates", might indicate a radical alteration of Brazilian social structure would perhaps enable Brazil to exploit it's forests for more than the 61 -92 years predicted ¹⁶. However, of the four examples we are looking at, the management of forest in Brazil, by it's very size, appears to have the most obviously maintainable long term future. It may be that the 60 million more people in the next thirty years will disperse and overcome the difficulties posed by clearance, displacement, settlement and potential habitat destruction. Once again we see that the current existence of poverty, where, given good management of human and natural resources, a sustainable, desirable and equable structure could be introduced, would need a massive alteration in demographic trends or management of resources.

Of our four examples, life expectancy and literacy are by far the lowest in Ethiopia. With a population of 66 millions, Ethiopia’s population is set to grow by the greatest percentage, the figure of 158 million by 2030 ¹⁵ illustrating a startling growth. Ethiopia is farming nation, and was naturally endowed with a generally favourable climate, fertile land and dense vegetation. Half of the countries GDP, 90% of it’s exports and 80% of its workforce are agricultural. 15 million people and 10% of the GDP are dependent on Coffee alone ¹⁹.

Once again we see the population explosion, stressed natural resources, extant poverty. and Urban Drift (from 9.5% population in 1975 to 25.8% in 13 years time) ¹⁹, but of all our four examples Ethiopia provides the most breathtaking illustration of our discourse. The equation seems simple

It seems beyond the national government's capabilities, however efficient, to reverse the trend of erosion and sequestration of land, and that the population explosion will continue despite Aids That there is enough food in the world to feed it's populance is accepted ²⁰. Tropical countries do have limitless power. Unless further catastrophe is to be loaded on to this country, external forces must take radical action immediately to reverse the trend of unsustainable natural resource exploitation and or population growth.

Hardly ever do Geographers, politicians or economists used the word 'Over Developed' with reference to those countries in the west with an inordinate consumption and waste relative to the world's capacity. There is a constant search for alternatives, mitigations and maintenance of status quo. There is a stated faith that market economics, coupled with advances in technology and efficiency might enable humanity to overcome those problems posed by 'development'.

Stress, philanthropy and economics can all give rise to solutions. We have seen how a co-ordination and community has blossomed in the Niger Delta ²¹, Non Governmental organisations dedicated to aid proliferate, and we see countless instances where a co-operative and trusting economic framework benefits all its actors. We have proud boasts of Pro - Globalisation economists that the index of difference between rich and poor countries is reducing for the good.

It is unlikely, however, that suffering will diminish, given the current demographic trends and availability of natural resources. If we see a trend in the most optomistic figures for the 'Gini Coefficient' of equality, we can extrapolate we will not have an equable world for 200 years (see fig 2). Natural resources management and economy have complex but inextricable ties. Gordon Brown, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer states " Too little is done for the more than one billion people who scrape by on less than a dollar a day" The Economist magazine echoes a common sentiment. "He is right" ²².