The Fuel Blockade in the United Kingdom.
In the week starting Sunday 10th September the country suffered a 'fuel blockade', carried out by a group claiming to represent disgruntled hauliers and farmers who were, ostensibly, protesting about the high price of road fuel in this country. The events of the following week dominated the media and captured the public's imagination in a way unparalleled since the death of Lady Diana Spencer.
It appeared, from watching the television and reading the papers that the country was in the throes of a crisis of biblical proportions, and that the government was immoral in its refusal to cut tax on Road Fuel. The self-same papers which had castigated the French Fuel Blockade ten days earlier were heaping plaudits upon the truckers and farmers who parked their vehicles across routes and blockaded fuel refineries.
So what happened? Did the country grind to a halt? Did the world cease to spin on its axis? Did your photographs come back two days late?
We will explore the actuality of the blockade, the perception of it, It's economic and political significance, and it's effects.
The Week that Was.
From the author's perspective, the fuel blockade was ineffective. The car had more petrol in then normal, and despite having a job which entailed using heavy equipment in different locations up to twenty miles apart, no work was missed, and the pubs in question were as full as ever.
During the week the author did not meet any person who was prevented from going to work through lack of petrol. Subsequently everybody who was asked (c 20 people) said they didn't miss work, and were able to eat precisely what they would normally expect to eat, except barber John Marsden. On the Thursday he had been unable to get milk. One interviewee said he had been delayed getting to work by a queue at a petrol station.
On Monday 18th 200 schools in the Wakefield area were closed. The blockade had been lifted by then. There is no school so remote in West Yorkshire as to render it impossible to get to before 9 A.M., using public transport.
Throughout the blockade the roads were still congested at peak time, and only occasionally might one have detected a significant drop in traffic movement.
Public Perception and Opinion.
The Pontefract and Castleford Express reflected the general hysteria on it's front page article using such phrases as "Chaos", "Panic Buying", "Mayhem", "Gone Mad", "Introduced Rationing", "Suppliers are not getting through". On the same day (Thursday 14th) the raft of daily newspapers, bar two, screamed support. A sample of the headlines from that day read
About 80% of the people with whom the issue was discussed supported the blockade and it's motives. The impression given was that most people would endorse the government knocking two pence off a litre of petrol. Reading the daily papers, listening to the Radio and watching the television, this might be expected. Radio 5 reports from the BBC described support as 'Unanimous'.
More interesting than the headlines and editorial of the newspapers were the pictures that appeared on the front pages. The seven newspapers previously described carried photographs showing.
Of these, only the latter might have indicated there was a problem of cars being unable to move for lack of fuel. This photograph did not indicate a time, date or weather the picture was of a road which was genuinely bereft of traffic, or merely one that had been blockaded.
Anecdotal tales of woe by individuals incapable of walking two miles were no more relevant than the author complaining about the price of beer.
It might be ventured that the textual content of the newspaper reports was imaginative. Equally the pictures proved nothing other than there was no pictorial evidence of real damage created by the blockade.
Considering the amount of advertising revenue generated by the motor industry and the dependency that the creators of media have on the car it would be financially prudent of them to support the blockade. Editors might find it easy to support a selfish public, who, through comprising the electorate, are collectively capable of rewarding the opportunistic politician.
Before one could utter the words 'Fourteen Pints' William Hague immediately lined himself and the Conservative Party up with the press and the public. The Prime Minister suffered huge dents in his popularity, resulting in the current Labour Government losing an opinion poll for the first time in seven years.
The Effects.
The government measures air quality automatically at over 100 locations around the country. (http://detr.gov.uk)
Data from Aberdeen, Manchester Piccadilly, London, and Leeds (random selections), was used to indicate the daily average of pm10 particles from August to the October 22nd. Pm10 particles are those particles less than 10 microns across, are characteristic of diesel emissions, and can be a barometer of motor use.
We can see from the chart, a reduction in these emissions, starting on Sunday 10th, dropping quickly from the 13th and bottoming out on Saturday 16th, starting to rise precisely when the blockade ended.
The DETR warn that these figures, being unratified, should be used with caution. Occasionally data is missing, and a 'best guess' has had to be made. Notwithstanding the results probably indicate an unusual improvement in air quality, and may be safely extrapolated to assume a reduction of traffic, and consequently, accidents.
In an ICM random sample of over 1000 adults on the weekend 16th September indicate that by the Saturday 29% of motorists had to stop driving because they did not have petrol, but 71% were able to carry on motoring. (Guardian Online) No figures were found for vital journeys, but throughout the 'crisis' public transport functioned as inefficiently as normal.
Factories increased their output in September, though at a slower rate then the previous month. The purchasing manager's index stood at 51.6, down 0.1 from august (
Guardian online). Retail sales in shops rose as the British Retail Consortium reported like for like sales figures up 2.9% on the previous year, considerably greater than the previous month's rise of 1.7%. Spokesmen declared that the full effects of the blockade might not have been fully quantified, and out of town shopping centres saw "sales fall of a cliff" (BBC Online).The Aims.
The farmers and truckers, supported by the public proposed a reduction in fuel duty
Asking the general public about tax is a little like asking turkey's about Christmas. The public apart from, perhaps, being selfish was badly informed, as we can see from the quoted headlines. If fuel really was too expensive we would see a trend of decline in private motor use, but we do not. The public is ready to endorse emission reduction and decentralised distribution, but fails to embrace the mechanics of such measures.
Farmers pay a tiny amount of tax on Red Diesel that they use in their agricultural machinery (3.13 p per litre as opposed to 48.8p on normal diesel), so any reduction in fuel duty for them would be minuscule.
There is considerable evidence that, were the haulage industry to pay for itself, considerably greater financial burdens would have to be placed upon it, probably through fuel. A report by Oxford Economic Research Associates last year estimated that British hauliers would have to pay £2.5bn more in taxes each year to cover their full costs. Since then a budget has conceded even more to the industry (Which doesn't pay VAT on the fuel anyway) (
Private Eye).Other interests may have profited from the blockade. The Conservative Party made huge gains in opinion polls; the petrol industry likewise would welcome a reduction in fuel tax, as would the motor trade. It would be naïve to think that members of these groups were not at least content to have witnessed the events.
The Future.
From a geographic perspective we would expect the fuel blockade to push an administration towards greater concession to the motor user and industry, consequently greater investment in road provision, dispersion of population, and erosion of available resources. Facts have appeared to be a back seat passenger in this particular debate and there is little evidence to indicate that the general public has been anything but generally supportive of the whole affair.
It seems, however, that the Prime Minister, from his press conference of Thursday 14th September onwards, is reluctant to give way to the demands of the protesters. There may be many reasons for this, but perhaps only a general election will dictate the path the country is to take regarding its future transport plans.
Bearing in mind the benefits to health brought about during the blockade, the increase in Production and sales there should be a clear message to those who propose further, similar, action: - Bring it on!
Steve Kidd
8/11/00
Preparation reportUpdate.
November 8th
. Chancellor Gordon Brown gave his pre budget speech. He conceded.City Index bookmakers were taking bets on how many times he would use the word 'prudence'. The total of six was eclipsed by the use of 'environment' which in itself or as part of another word was used 18 times. The reality of his budget will be an increase in motor use by April 2002.
Professor Stephen Glaister (http://www.gse.ic.ac.uk/members/Glaister.html,) of Imperial College, London, explained on Radio 4 that in effect motoring will be cheaper in two years time, and there is a direct correlation between cost and use, endorsing previous estimates of a 1.5% increase made by Roger Harriman. Neither the Chancellor nor the Transport spokesman, Gus MacDonald would be drawn into quoting a government estimate as to how motor use would change as a result of the budget.
November 9th- 14th A second action took place, with a 'convoy' of lorries moving slowly down the country to petition the government. Unlike Septembers action the media appeared unsupportive, and the BBC quoted a mail reception 90% critical.
Whether the swing in opinion was caused by the weather, the chancellor's speech or a realisation that the grounds for the protest were suspect I do not know, nevertheless it appears that the Initial protest has worked a treat. The message is clear. If you want something done don't bother writing letters.
12/11/00